The Best of Times for Car Dealers... The Worst of Times for Car Buyers

Quote from J.D. Power in May 31, 2021 issue of Automotive News:

“Dealers are exceptionally profitable right now”, said Tyson Jominy, vice president of data and analytics at J.D. Power. He pointed to figures released Friday, May 28, that show total car dealer profit per vehicle, including grosses and F&I income, is on pace to reach an all-time high of $3,245—more than DOUBLE the $1,567 earned a year earlier. Vehicle gross profits have exceeded $2,000 for nine of the last 10 months according to J.D. Power. Sticker Shock: Figures from J.D. Power show the stark rise in the prices at which dealers are selling new vehicles. Here are the percentages of new vehicle transactions that were near or above manufacturers’ suggested retail price, MSRP, in the first 26 days of May, compared with full month results in previous years: May 2021, 69%, May 2020, 41%, May 2019 36%.

I hasten to add that the “exceptional profits” quoted above are average profits. Car dealers are the only retailers who sell the exact same product for wildly varying prices to each buyer, based on the buyer’s negotiating skills. What this means is that, unless you’re one of those shrewd buyers, your price will be much higher than the 69% of buyers who pay at or above MSRP…full sticker. Furthermore, these record prices don’t account for the overpriced dealer add-ons (nitrogen in tires, paint sealant, mudguards, etc.).

Unless you must buy a car now, the wise course of action is to wait until supply equals demand. The free marketplace always corrects itself, seeking to reach “supply = demand”. I don’t have a crystal ball, but this will likely happen by early August. In fact, when this correction occurs, the marketplace typically overcorrects which will mean supply exceeds demand. This will result in prices plummeting. The 2022 models will begin to become available in August. If you can wait until this time to buy you next car, you will avoid today’s grossly higher prices plus buy a year newer model, saving the “instant depreciation” of several thousand dollars on last year’s model.

If you’re currently leasing a car with several months left on your lease, you’ll be “hounded” by dealers and the manufacturer to terminate your lease early and buy or lease another car. The dealer and manufacturer know that your current lease car is worth a lot more than they thought it would be at this time when they leased it to you. For this reason, they want to benefit from this unexpected windfall in used car values by leasing or selling you another car. It’s a lose-lose for you if you let them trick you into doing this. If you don’t want to continue leasing your car, you have a contractual option to buy it at, what is likely, a much lower price than the current inflated market price. You can exercise this purchase option and continue to drive it, or sell the car back to a dealer (or individual) at a much higher price. You can use this profit to mitigate today’s temporarily higher cost of new (or used) cars.

Most of you know that I’m a car dealer, and you must be wondering why I would try to talk you out of buying or leasing a car until later in the year. I’ve been a car dealer since 1968 (54 years) and have learned that what’s best for my customers is best for my business in the long run. If I mislead my customers into buying a car this month, some of them will realize this, and never do business with me again; but if I suggest something that is clearly in their best interests, even to my detriment, they will be more likely to believe me later, when I tell them I can offer them a good price. Furthermore, my customers will tell their relatives, friends, and neighbors that they know an honest car dealer.